Dr. Hassam Ahmed Siddiqi 
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has emerged as a powerful enabler that permeates all facets of human life and is rapidly being integrated into military systems worldwide. Driven by its remarkable efficiency and inspired by the foundational principles of realism, AI’s growing autonomy and accelerated decision-making capabilities are poised to transform future warfare dramatically. This technology’s dual-use nature means it serves both civilian and military purposes, with AI becoming central to various military domains such as Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR), Command and Control (C2), Autonomous Weapon Systems (AWS) including Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS), cyber defense and offense, as well as military planning, training, and logistics. The increasing sophistication and application of AI in these areas present numerous operational benefits but also significant ethical and strategic risks.
At its core, AI enables machines to simulate human cognitive abilities, allowing them to perform diverse tasks by learning from vast amounts of data and predicting future scenarios based on this information. This iterative learning process results in more optimal decision-making tailored to specific contexts. Although AI research began in the mid-20th century, its growth accelerated after 2010 due to advances in data availability, machine learning techniques, and computational power. Leading global military powers, notably the United States and China are heavily investing in AI, recognizing it as a pivotal element that might redefine global strategic dominance. There are concerns from figures like Elon Musk regarding AI’s lethality and its unpredictable consequences if deployed unrestrained in military applications.
AI’s military applications extend well beyond the well-publicized Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS), often dubbed killer robots. It enhances the battlefield at both micro and macro levels by assisting soldiers directly and optimizing war planning and logistic operations. AI is not a standalone technology but rather an enabler that enhances the capabilities of current military systems through three main capacities: imparting autonomy to systems, innovating warfare techniques, and processing information to inform action.
In Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance, AI systems manage enormous data streams generated from drones and sensors. This data explosion, drones alone saw data increases of over 1600% in a single decade, necessitates rapid processing that only AI algorithms integrated with computer vision can provide efficiently. AI helps discern threats and targets and facilitates timely operational decisions by commanders. AI-based systems can also bridge communication gaps between different military units, enhancing cooperation between air and ground forces by categorizing and streamlining data specific needs. Machine learning techniques create normalcy patterns based on factors such as speed, direction, and movement of military assets; deviations from these patterns alert commanders to suspicious activities swiftly.
Command and Control systems benefit similarly from AI’s integration. These systems underpin the exercise of military authority and coordination for diverse operations. AI helps meet intermediate needs (processing operation-specific data), mid-term needs (dynamic coordination and planning), and long-term needs (centralized control with decentralized execution). The planned Multi-Domain Command and Control (MDC2) networks aim to integrate air, sea, land, and space operations into unified and seamless systems, enhancing situational awareness and decision-making agility. Such systems are still in infancy but are under active development and testing by organizations like the US Air Force in collaboration with defense companies.
Autonomous Weapon Systems, including LAWS, represent a technological shift from automated to autonomous warfare. Autonomous systems possess higher authority to make decisions based on reasoning and perceptions, operating independently of human control in combat decisions. This transition raises fundamental ethical concerns, as the potential for machines to independently initiate attacks without human intervention introduces risks of misuse and unintended consequences. Nevertheless, major powers are progressing towards deploying these systems across multiple domains, land, sea, air, and space with the aim of enhancing precision and operational effectiveness.
Cyber defense and offense form another critical arena where AI proves indispensable. The increasing sophistication of cyber-attacks challenges traditional defense mechanisms, prompting militaries to harness AI’s capability to detect and counter evolving threats. AI-driven intrusion detection systems analyze patterns to distinguish benign from malicious activities and adapt to identify novel attack methodologies. Offensive cyber capabilities are likewise expected to integrate AI, potentially precipitating an arms race between AI-enabled offensive and defensive cyber operations.
AI’s role extends to military planning and training, where it enhances mission effectiveness by improving accuracy, reducing human labor and costs, and saving valuable time. Machine learning algorithms can forecast equipment failures, detect faults, and analyze vulnerabilities, providing commanders with comprehensive battlefield overviews. In training, AI personalizes learning by considering individual capabilities and learning styles; it can also analyze performance data to select optimal personnel for specific missions while eliminating biases in decision-making processes, including postings and promotions. Virtual reality combined with AI further refines training by simulating realistic combat scenarios, helping soldiers adapt to the complexities of modern warfare.
Logistically, AI transforms maintenance and transportation within military operations. Predictive maintenance for aircraft, exemplified by systems like the F-35’s Autonomic Logistics Information System, anticipates component failures, ensuring high readiness and operational availability. AI also facilitates the efficient management of big data, addressing challenges posed by data volume, speed, and format diversity. Machine learning assists in budgeting, resource allocation, and optimizing the transportation of troops and material, reducing both costs and human burdens. Despite its manifold benefits, the adoption of AI in military operations presents risks and ethical dilemmas. The speed and autonomy provided by AI may outpace human oversight, raising concerns about weaponized systems making critical decisions independently. The potential for erroneous target identification or system malfunction poses a serious moral and strategic challenge. Autonomous systems may disregard conventional safety norms, pursuing assigned goals with inflexibility that could exacerbate conflicts and hinder de-escalation efforts. The resulting uncertainty and unpredictability raise fears of increased conflict escalation rather than peace promotion.
The introduction of multiple, differently programmed AI systems on battlefields could further complicate decision-making processes and cause conflict miscalculations. Sensor failures or deliberate tampering with AI input data might cause system crashes or erroneous actions with potentially catastrophic outcomes. Assumptions that AI will reduce civilian casualties are not assured, especially in low-threshold or densely populated conflict zones where autonomous weapons could inflict significant harm. While AI systems offer higher accuracy and precision, they may lack the contextual understanding necessary to adapt to complex environments, leading to unintended consequences.
In the regional context, Pakistan faces strategic imperatives to engage with AI development amid advances by neighboring India, which is actively incorporating AI into its military doctrines and projects, including autonomous drones and robotic frameworks. Pakistan’s potential to enhance its military capabilities through AI depends heavily on increased government investment, international cooperation (notably with China), and improving educational standards related to AI research and practical applications. Universities in Pakistan are beginning to offer programs in AI, and research centers like CENTAIC are promoting indigenous development, but much progress is still required to compete regionally and globally.
Artificial Intelligence stands as a transformative military enabler, reshaping warfare’s character and dynamics. While its adoption promises enhanced operational efficiency and new strategic capabilities, the associated risks accelerated conflict escalation, ethical challenges, and the potential loss of human control necessitate careful evaluation and regulation. The future trajectory of AI in military domains will largely hinge on the extent to which decision-makers are willing to delegate autonomy to these technologies, balancing innovation with prudence to safeguard stability and peace.
